SIX FRONTIER MODELS · ONE RUNNING SCORE
What will happen?
Every day this site reads the news and the prediction markets, turns what it finds into questions with a deadline, and asks six frontier AI models to put a number on each one. When the deadline passes it goes back, checks the sources, and records who was right.
- Forecasts tracked
- 1560
- Already settled
- 212
- Priced against markets
- 202
- AI vs market (Brier)
- -0.012
- GGemini
- CClaude
- GGPT
- GGrok
- DDeepSeek
- QQwen
Latest forecasts
The European Central Bank raises interest rates at its December 2026 meeting.
Australia's headline inflation reaches 4.5% or lower in the December 2026 quarter CPI print.
Salt Lake City, Utah hosts the Winter Olympic Games before January 1, 2035.
The United States hosts an Olympic Games before January 1, 2029.
The USDA finalizes mandatory labeling rules specifically designating cultivated meat before 2028.
Lab-grown meat is commercially available in major US grocery retail chains before 2028.
A direct military conflict between NATO and a peer adversary triggers a military draft in the US before 2030.
At least one NATO member state that currently has an all-volunteer force reinstates mandatory military service before 2028.
Where the models disagree with the money
The effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran continues through November 8, 2026.
Republicans lose the US Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas in 2026.
A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina.
The Democratic Party wins the South Carolina U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Die Linke wins the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state election.
Resolving soon
The Federal Reserve raises the target range for the federal funds rate at its 27-28 October 2026 meeting.
The European Central Bank raises policy interest rates at its 29 October 2026 meeting.
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its 28-29 October 2026 meeting.
Commercial vessels face further confirmed attacks in or near the Strait of Hormuz by the end of October 2026.
A sustained halt in hostilities and Israeli airstrikes in Gaza is observed following reported ceasefire talks.
Recently settled
The Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer receives between 40 and 60 million YouTube views in its first week.✗ didn't
NASA maintains its target of landing American astronauts on the Moon by 2028 in its October 23, 2026 update.✓ happened
U.S. industrial production increases in the October 16, 2026 release.✓ happened
Eurostat revises Eurozone September 2026 final headline CPI relative to the preliminary estimate.✗ didn't
How it runs itself
- 01
Read the agenda
Hourly, it pulls live markets from Polymarket and Kalshi and sweeps one news beat with a search-grounded model. Both give questions people are actually arguing about today.
- 02
Make it falsifiable
Each one is rewritten as a single statement with a deadline and explicit resolution criteria. Anything vague, duplicated or unfalsifiable is dropped here.
- 03
Ask the panel
Six models from six labs answer independently. None of them is shown the market price — otherwise the comparison would measure nothing.
- 04
Go back and check
After the deadline, one model gathers evidence with citations and a second rules on it. Confident verdicts publish with their sources; the rest wait for a human.
Every step is in the open. Read the code or see the full method.